Gambler's Fallacy Explained

Gambling at a professional level is never easy, but it’s downright impossible if you regularly find yourself swept up in the Gambler’s Fallacy.

The Gambler’s Fallacy is a belief that an outcome will occur based on past occurrences. Despite it being common and widespread, it is a fallacy for a reason, and can quickly lead a gambler to their downfall. Keep reading to learn everything you need to know about the Gambler’s Fallacy.

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

The Gambler’s Fallacy is a belief that the next outcome will be influenced by the previous ones. For example, someone who has rolled every number but a 6 for 50 dice rolls will believe that the next one has to be a 6 because “it’s time.” This is a common and widespread fallacy often found in every casino on earth.

Why is it a Fallacy?

The truth is, every outcome of a game of chance, based on randomness, is independent. This means that any dice roll is 100% separate from the one previous to it. Basically, just because you haven’t rolled a six for a while doesn’t mean that you will anytime soon.

This is better explained by the law of probability and the law of life. A die is a non-living entity; thus it has no knowledge of its previous rolls. Rather, each side has an equal chance of being rolled each time. Therefore, the probability of rolling a 6 is always 1/6 or always 16.6% even if you haven’t rolled a 6 in forever.

If this is the first time you are hearing this, don’t fret, you aren’t alone. Many adults incorrectly assume that their next dice roll will be influenced by the previous one, which is why this is a scarily common fallacy.

What is the Monte Carlo Fallacy?

The Monte Carlo Fallacy is just another name for the Gambler’s Fallacy, likely originating in the city-state of Monte Carlo, where gambling has been a longstanding tradition. While in modern times it is more likely to be called the Gambler’s Fallacy, you may still hear this term from time to time.

Why the Gambler’s Fallacy Occurs

The main reason the Gambler’s Fallacy occurs is that humans are obsessed with searching the world for patterns. And because in the past, noticing patterns has saved human lives, thus those who were unable to see patterns have been eliminated by natural selection. While this may have saved humans from many natural disasters of the past (like a bad grasshopper year always coming when the spring is wet), it has no place in gambling, as, again, every roll or spin is independent of the last, end of story.

Why the Gambler’s Fallacy is Bad

The reason you need to stay away from the Gambler’s Fallacy is that it leads to suboptimal decision-making while gambling. Rather than basing decisions on math and probability, this fallacy leads people to make decisions based on false patterns they’ve perceived. As you can imagine, this can lead to risky behavior, like placing large bets that the individual otherwise wouldn’t place.

While it can be hard to keep your head and fight the human nature of pattern perception, Gambler’s Fallacy is dangerous, and anyone wishing to become a professional gambler must learn when to walk away, even when they itch to do otherwise.

Tips to Keep Yourself From Falling Victim to the Fallacy

One of the best ways to avoid Gambler’s Fallacy is just to know about it, but as you know, it can be hard to remember a random blog article you once read when sitting at a table in a casino two drinks deep. Therefore, the next time you notice patterns in your gambling, we recommend doing the following:

1. Remind Yourself That the Die/Machine/Cards Don’t Have Feelings

The die doesn’t care that you haven’t rolled a six in forever. The cards don’t care that you’ve been lucky. They are not living things, and they don’t care if you win or lose.

2. Remember, Life is Random

All gambling utilizes random numbers in some shape or form, unless you are playing poker, but that’s a skill game. In any non-skill game, the outcome is generated by a random number generator, and as such, there are no patterns to see or learn. If you find yourself getting sucked into pattern-making, remind yourself that life, in and of itself, is random.

3. Don’t Drink While You Gamble

Drinking lowers inhibitions, and casinos know this, which is why most serve free drinks. To avoid losing your edge and your ability to remember that gambling isn’t based on patterns, it’s best to pass on the drinks when the cocktail server comes by.

4. Spend Time Learning

The best way to avoid something is to learn more about it. In this case, learning about probability won’t only make you invincible to the Gambler’s Fallacy, but it will also make you a better gambler overall. You might just be surprised by the tricks you do learn for your favorite random games.

What is the Hot Hand Fallacy?

Despite common belief, the Hot Hand Fallacy and the Gambler’s Fallacy are not the same, though they come from a similar mistake. The Hot Hand Fallacy is the belief that if things are going well for you, and you are winning a lot, that you shouldn’t walk away from the table because otherwise your “streak” of winning will be broken. Basically, it’s a belief that if you have luck, that luck is continued.

Like the Gambler’s Fallacy, this is dangerous, as someone may think they will continue winning just because they already are. While this is a different type of pattern searching, it is still relying on a pattern that does not exist. Luck is luck, and the outcomes of each roll of a die or flip of a card are always separate.

Overall, the Gambler’s Fallacy is a dangerous mental state, especially for those who game frequently. But if you educate yourself and learn some ways to remind yourself that all outcomes are independent, you should be able to break your fixation on non-existent patterns to become a better gambler.