Why “Hot Streaks” Are Misleading

You’ve heard it before: you or your friend can’t leave a table because you’re on a “hot streak,” but is there any truth to this phrase? Should you stay if you are winning several hands in a row?

While there is a little bit of scientific evidence to support the term of “hot hands” when it comes to sports, very little of this crosses over into the gambling world. Hot streaks are truly an emotion and nothing more. Read on to learn more about why hot streaks are misleading in gambling, and what you should watch for instead.

What is a Hot Streak?

A “hot streak” is a term used to describe when a player is winning hand after hand during a game. The term has been around for a long time, and originated many years ago. We were unable to nail down the exact advent of this term; however, we expect it came around in the early days of competition when tools used for competition (like axes or saws) would heat up with speedy use. As you can imagine, those whose tools were moving the fastest were the hottest, and thus they won most of the time.

Hot Streaks vs. Hot Hands

The terms hot streaks and hot hands generally mean the same thing. Both mean that the person who is “playing” is playing well enough to win time after time. That being said, the term “hot streak” is generally reserved for gamblers, while “hot hands” is usually used solely for sports. Of course, there are sometimes speakers who deviate from these uses, so it is always a good idea to clarify to ensure you are speaking of the same thing before diving too deep into a conversation.

Are Hot Streaks Real?

In a few words, no, hot streaks are not real. Many studies have been performed over the years, both on gamblers and on athletes, and there has been no evidence to prove that an athlete (or gambler) who has made many shots in a row is any more likely to make the next shot than they were the last.

In fact, in terms of sports studies, athletes’ performance actually decreased after each winning shot, meaning there is no reason to continue shooting time after time due to the thinking that it may lead to more positive results.

While athletes can be more athletic, and thus skew their own probabilities of making an initial shot with practice and hard work(hot hands aside), the same cannot be said for gambling. The outcomes of gambling are always dictated by probability(with the notable exception of poker); therefore, there is no reason to not leave a winning table or machine, because you are just as likely to lose the next hand as you were the last.

Of course, there is a small amount of evidence to show that someone who is taking bigger risks (which can happen when someone thinks they are on a hot streak) can lead to bigger rewards, but still, the outcomes are based on probabilities alone. You only win more in these situations because you bet more.  

How to Know If You Are in a Hot Streak?

As we have mentioned several times by this point, hot streaks are not real. That being said, if you are winning hand after hand (and barely losing), you are likely experiencing a stroke of luck which can be considered a “hot streak.”

We recommend always leaving the table when you originally intended to, whether you set a timer, grow tired, or have gambled all the money you want to gamble—even if you are in a hot streak. Remember, you are only winning due to probability and luck, which can change in an instant, so once you start to lose, it’s best to walk away because there is no guarantee you will win like you were before.

Signs to Watch For As You Gamble

Although we don’t believe in hot streaks, it’s hard to discount the existence of luck. If you find yourself winning more frequently than normal, here are some things to watch for so you know when to walk away from the table.

1. Know Expected Variance

Remember, scientists have proven that gambling is always based on probabilities. This means you will lose at some point. So, know the variance of the game you are playing, and if you are winning more than you anticipated when compared to expected variance, it’s time to cash out before you lose everything you just won.

2. Know Yourself

Even if you have won 50 hands in a row, this does not mean you will win hand 51. Plus, as we mentioned earlier, an athlete's performance actually decreased after each subsequent shot due to fatigue over time—and the same goes for gambling. Even the greatest poker players grow tired of running calculations in their head and watching for signs that someone is bluffing. So, if you find yourself fatigued or losing your edge, it’s time to leave before you start to lose.

3. Never Exceed Your Limits

Every gambler should have limits they never exceed. If you don’t have any yet, it is time to make them. Then, when you are in the middle of what you feel may be a hot streak, resolve to never pass these limits, no matter what. Remember, limits can be monetary, time-related, or even hand-related if you want to get specific. Just ensure once you set them, you uphold them at any cost.

Overall, scientists agree with us that there is no such thing as hot streaks. Winning outcomes are based on mathematical probabilities, and though athletes can improve theirs with hard work, there is no way, as a gambler, you can change the outcome of any game other than poker.

So next time you feel you are in a hot streak, remember you are only experiencing a small bit of luck and that you can leave at any time. Because just as quickly as you were winning hand after hand, you can also start losing once more.